Collector guide
How Pokémon card prices work
Why new chase cards often fall after release, why PSA 10s usually fall furthest, and what actually happened to some well-known cards since. A look back at real prices — not advice or a prediction.
- PSA 10
- 45%
- Ungraded
- 71%
of their price in the first months — the typical card in our data. See the cards
The life of a new card
When a new card’s price falls, it usually isn’t a crash — it’s a pattern most sets go through.
- 1
Release
Everyone wants the big hits on day one, but only a few have been pulled. Early sales are few and eager, so the first prices are often the highest a card sees for a while.
- 2
More packs, more copies
A set usually stays in print for a couple of years. Every restock, tin, collection and booster box adds packs, so more copies of the same card reach collectors every month.
- 3
The grading wait
Grading takes weeks to months, so at first there are very few PSA 10s and they sell for a lot. As submissions come back there are more to go round — one reason graded prices often fall furthest.
- 4
Out of print
When printing stops, no new packs arrive. Some cards have risen in the years after; plenty haven't. It depends on how many people still want that card.
- 5
The long run
Over the years it comes down to how much collectors love a particular card — and nobody can tell in advance which ones they'll keep coming back to.
Real examples, one from each year
A well-known chase card from each year since 2021 (all of them are also in our Market index) and what its price actually did. Some are above their early price today, some are below — these are past prices, not a guide to what happens next.
- Umbreon VMAX #215Evolving Skies · released Aug 2021First monthsA year laterOct 2026PSA 10$643$776$3,770Ungraded$196$365$1,673
- Lugia V #186Silver Tempest · released Nov 2022First monthsA year laterOct 2026PSA 10$581$269$1,250Ungraded$215$123$456
- Charizard ex #223Obsidian Flames · released Aug 2023First monthsA year laterOct 2026PSA 10$483$216$685Ungraded$80$43$95
- Pikachu ex #238Surging Sparks · released Nov 2024First monthsA year laterOct 2026PSA 10$1,359$889$761Ungraded$415$263$253
- Umbreon ex #161Prismatic Evolutions · released Jan 2025First monthsA year laterOct 2026PSA 10$4,085$4,213$4,825Ungraded$1,344$1,015$1,021
- Pikachu ex #276Ascended Heroes · released Jan 2026First monthsA year laterOct 2026PSA 10$3,309not yet$1,687Ungraded$876not yet$731
Chase cards in their first two years
Every card in our data released since mid-2021 whose PSA 10 sold for $100 or more in its first months, against that early price. The line is the typical card; the shaded band is where the middle half of cards fell.
- 56%The typical PSA 10 six months after release.
- 45%The typical PSA 10 a year after release.
- 71%The same cards ungraded a year after release.
- 34%The typical PSA 10 two years after release (62% ungraded).
The most valuable cards in this group that are at least a year old
| Card | Released | PSA 10 first months | PSA 10 a year later | Ungraded first months | Ungraded a year later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon ex #161 Prismatic Evolutions | Jan 2025 | $4,085 | $4,213(+3%) | $1,344 | $1,015(-24%) |
| Pikachu #171 Chinese 151 Collect | Jan 2025 | $2,921 | $888(-70%) | $630 | $509(-19%) |
| Mega Charizard X Ex #116 Japanese Inferno X | Sep 2025 | $2,360 | $2,390(+1%) | $660 | $648(-2%) |
| Iono #96 Japanese Clay Burst | Apr 2023 | $1,965 | $557(-72%) | $1,067 | $416(-61%) |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex #231 Destined Rivals | May 2025 | $1,658 | $1,406(-15%) | $405 | $538(+33%) |
| Sylveon ex #156 Prismatic Evolutions | Jan 2025 | $1,534 | $1,067(-30%) | $418 | $305(-27%) |
| Victini #172 White Flare | Jul 2025 | $1,525 | $1,481(-3%) | $437 | $543(+24%) |
| Mega Lucario Ex #188 Mega Evolution | Sep 2025 | $1,516 | $695(-54%) | $460 | $219(-52%) |
| Victini #171 Black Bolt | Jul 2025 | $1,467 | $1,506(+3%) | $442 | $598(+35%) |
| Seismitoad #105 Black Bolt | Jul 2025 | $1,451 | $2,313(+59%) | $188 | $229(+22%) |
| Mega Charizard X Ex #110 Japanese Inferno X | Sep 2025 | $1,439 | $939(-35%) | $596 | $570(-4%) |
| Zekrom ex #172 Black Bolt | Jul 2025 | $1,417 | $1,444(+2%) | $420 | $590(+40%) |
A collector’s view
Buy what you love
A card you love is worth having whatever its price does. The art, the memory of the pull or the hunt for it often count for more than a number on a chart.
Spend what you’re comfortable with
Collecting should be fun. Set yourself a budget, only buy cards you’re happy to pay for, and never spend money you need on something just because its price might rise.
A falling price can be good news
If there’s a new card you want, its first months have often been its most expensive. Put it on your buy list and watch its price.
Bigger price, more care
Before buying an expensive card, look at its history: how long since release, ungraded against PSA 10, and whether its set is still being printed.
About these numbers
Monthly prices from completed sales (PriceCharting), in US dollars, which we have from 2021 onwards. “First months” is the average of the first three months after release; “a year later” the average of months 11–13. Sealed products are left out. Updated October 2026. These are past prices for information only — not financial advice, and not a prediction of what any card will do.